Distribution modelling and future prediction of a threatened species- Heracleum candicans Wall. ex DC.; Within the framework of biotic and abiotic interactions | |
Hussain, Jawad; Khan, Shujaul Mulk1; Khan, Muhammad Shakeel; Saqib, Zafeer2; Abdullah; Ahmad, Zeeshan3; Shah, Maria; Mohammad, Nazir; Batool, Zareena; Sohail, Amir; Liu, Jie4,5,6 | |
2025 | |
Source Publication | JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
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ISSN | 0301-4797 |
Volume | 387Issue:xPages:- |
Abstract | Heracleum candicans Wall. ex DC. (Hogweed) is under huge anthropogenic pressure in terms of multipurpose collection coupled with climate-driven environmental changes in the region. It was hypothesized that establishment of H. candicans with plant associations was due to the complex biotic and abiotic interactions which play a crucial role in its present as well as future distribution. Therefore, we aimed to find out the impact of biotic and abiotic interactions as well as habitat suitability of hogweed, under the current and future climatic scenarios. The association pattern and biotic interactions were evaluated via Cluster Analysis (CA) and Two-Way Cluster Analysis (TWCA). Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and Canonical Correspondance Analysis (CCA) were carried out to assess H. candicans in relations to biotic and abiotic variables, simultaneously. Findings showed that abundance of the plant increased with increase in soil pH, EC, OM, N, P, K, sand and silt while decreased with increase in soil erosion and elevation from sea level. H. candicans exist in three different plant associations ranging from elevation of 1800-3000 m.a.s.l. For the distribution modelling of the H. candicans three machine algorithms such as RF, CART and SVM were used to predict potential habitats suitability, till the end this century. Future distribution of the considered species is primarily influenced by temperature and precipitation seasonality. Ensemble modelling-RF achieved high performance based on AUC-ROC values with training and test data of 1 and 0.979, respectively. The suitable habitat of the plant is expected to show contrasting range changes from 2040 to 2070 under both SSP126 and SSP370 scenarios. By the year 2100, the range of suitable habitat is expected to expand under optimistic, and to shrink in a pessimistic scenarios, SSP126 and SSP370, respectively. The predictive modelling approach could be beneficial for assessing the conservation importance and devising the future management strategies and policies for this and number of other endemic and threatened species, especially the medicinal plants. |
Keyword | HINDUKUSH RANGE PLANT BIODIVERSITY WESTERN HIMALAYAS DISTRICT SWAT VEGETATION CONSERVATION COMMUNITIES ECOSYSTEMS PATTERNS DIVISION |
Subject Area | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
DOI | 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125818 |
Indexed By | SCI |
Language | 英语 |
WOS ID | WOS:001497678900003 |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | 期刊论文 |
Identifier | https://ir.xtbg.ac.cn/handle/353005/14758 |
Collection | 其他 |
Affiliation | 1.Quaid I Azam Univ, Dept Plant Sci, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan 2.Pakistan Acad Sci, Lahore, Pakistan 3.Int Islamic Univ, Islamabad, Pakistan 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Xishuangbanna Trop Bot Garden, Mengl 666303, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Key Lab Plant Divers & Biogeog East Asia, Kunming Inst Bot, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Germplasm Bank Wild Species, Kunming, Peoples R China 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, Yunnan Key Lab Crop Wild Relat Omics, Kunming, Peoples R China |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Hussain, Jawad,Khan, Shujaul Mulk,Khan, Muhammad Shakeel,et al. Distribution modelling and future prediction of a threatened species- Heracleum candicans Wall. ex DC.; Within the framework of biotic and abiotic interactions[J]. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,2025,387(x):-. |
APA | Hussain, Jawad.,Khan, Shujaul Mulk.,Khan, Muhammad Shakeel.,Saqib, Zafeer.,Abdullah.,...&Liu, Jie.(2025).Distribution modelling and future prediction of a threatened species- Heracleum candicans Wall. ex DC.; Within the framework of biotic and abiotic interactions.JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,387(x),-. |
MLA | Hussain, Jawad,et al."Distribution modelling and future prediction of a threatened species- Heracleum candicans Wall. ex DC.; Within the framework of biotic and abiotic interactions".JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 387.x(2025):-. |
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