Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the endangered endemic annonaceae species in east africa | |
Mkala, Elijah Mbandi; Mwanzia, Virginia3; Nzei, John; Oluoch, Wyclife Agumba4; Ngarega, Boniface K.; Wanga, Vincent Okello2; Oulo, Milicent Akinyi2; Mutie, Fedrick Munyao2; Kilingo, Flory Mkangombe6; Rono, Penninah2; Waswa, Emmanuel Nyongesa2; Mutinda, Elizabeth Syowai2; Ochieng, Clintone Onyango2; Mwachala, Geoffrey7; Hu, Guang-Wan; Wang, Qing-Feng; Katunge, Jacinta Kaweze1,2; Victoire, Izabayo1,2 | |
2023 | |
Source Publication | HELIYON
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ISSN | 2405-8440 |
Volume | 9Issue:6Pages:- |
Abstract | Globally, endemic species and natural habitats have been significantly impacted by climate change, and further considerable impacts are predicted. Therefore, understanding how endemic species are impacted by climate change can aid in advancing the necessary conservation initiatives. The use of niche modeling is becoming a popular topic in biological conservation to forecast changes in species distributions under various climate change scenarios. This study used the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1 (ACCESS-CM2) general circulation model of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for the four threatened Annonaceae species endemic to East Africa (EA), to determine the impact of climate change on their suitable habitat in the years 2050 (average for 2041-2060) and 2070 (average for 2061-2080). Two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) SSP370 and SSP585 were used to project the contraction and expansion of suitable habitats for Uvariodendron kirkii, Uvaria kirkii, Uvariodendron dzomboense and Asteranthe asterias endemic to Kenya and Tanzania in EA. The current distribution for all four species is highly influenced by precipitation, temperature, and environmental factors (population, potential evapotranspiration, and aridity index). Although the loss of the original suitable habitat is anticipated to be significant, appropriate habitat expansion and contraction are projections for all species. More than 70% and 40% of the original habitats of Uvariodendron dzombense and |
Keyword | Climate change Conservation management Ecological niche modeling Threatened species |
Subject Area | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
DOI | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17405 |
Indexed By | SCI |
Language | 英语 |
WOS ID | WOS:001041895000001 |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | 期刊论文 |
Identifier | https://ir.xtbg.ac.cn/handle/353005/13880 |
Collection | 其他 |
Affiliation | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Key Lab Plant Germplasm Enhancement & Specialt, Wuhan Bot Garden, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Sino Afr Joint Res Ctr, Wuhan CN-430074, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing CN-100049, Peoples R China 4.Lukenya Univ, Athi River, POB 9090128, Mtito Andei, Kenya 5.Univ Bonn, Ctr Dev Res, ZEF, Genscherallee 3, D-53113 Bonn, Germany 6.Ngarega, Boniface K.] Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Integrat Conservat, Xishuangbanna Trop Bot Garden, Menglun 666303, Peoples R China 7.Tongji Univ, TONGJI Inst Environm Sci & Sustainable Dev IESD, UNEP, Siping Rd 1239, Shanghai 200092, Peoples R China 8.East African Herbarium, Natl Museums Kenya, POB 4516600100, Nairobi, Kenya 9.Chinese Acad Sci, Wuhan Bot Garden, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Mkala, Elijah Mbandi,Mwanzia, Virginia,Nzei, John,et al. Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the endangered endemic annonaceae species in east africa[J]. HELIYON,2023,9(6):-. |
APA | Mkala, Elijah Mbandi.,Mwanzia, Virginia.,Nzei, John.,Oluoch, Wyclife Agumba.,Ngarega, Boniface K..,...&Victoire, Izabayo.(2023).Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the endangered endemic annonaceae species in east africa.HELIYON,9(6),-. |
MLA | Mkala, Elijah Mbandi,et al."Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the endangered endemic annonaceae species in east africa".HELIYON 9.6(2023):-. |
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